Bully The Bookie - 09/05
2018-2019 BULLY THE BOOKIE RECORD
NCAAF: 30-21-1
NFL: 33-26-4
FOOTBALL OVERALL: 67-51-5 (56.8%)
Labour Day Weekend has passed and school has commenced. Summer is unofficially over and that means football is officially back.
Coaches are prepared and players and fans are pumped -- your bookie, not so much.
Marshall Thundering Herd (1-0, 0-1 ATS) @ Boise State Broncos (1-0, 1-0)
Albertson Stadium, Boise, ID
Friday, September 6th, 2019 9 PM
Spread: Boise St -11, O/U: 56.5
Boise State has their first home game of the season on the beautiful, blue field at Albertson stadium, and the Broncos truly love playing on it.
Out of their last 20 at home, they’ve won 17. The Broncos are fresh off a huge win to start their season. In Week 1 action, Boise St went all the way down to Tallehasse, FL to pull off an incredible 2nd half comeback win vs the Seminoles. Boise was down by 18 in the 1st half but managed to outscore the Seminoles 17-0 in the 2nd. As for The Thundering Herd, they have never been a concern. I wouldn’t give Marshall a chance even if Matthew McConaughey returned behind the clipboard.
PICK: BOISE ST -11
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Ohio Bobcats (1-0, 0-1 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Panthers (0-1, 0-1)
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Saturday, September 7th, 2019 11 AM
Spread: Pitt -5.5, O/U: 54.5
This game falls into the #yougottabetit category. You'll wake up Saturday morning, looking at the slate of Saturday games, and before you even finish your double double (or double Caesar), you'll notice the lone game that begins before noon. A must bet to kick start the day of debauchery.
Quick Stats
Pitt 6-1 L7 vs the Mid American Conference
Ohio 0-5 L5 vs the ACC
PICK: PITT -5.5
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22 Syracuse Orange (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ Maryland Terrapins (1-0, 1-0)
Maryland Stadium, College Park, MD
Saturday, September 7th, 2019 12 PM
Spread: Maryland -2.5, O/U: 56.5
Syracuse has had a few dominant seasons lately and there's one reason why; Eric Dungey. The same reason why they don't deserve the #22 ranking they've been granted, because Eric graduated last year. Maryland should be able to beat the Orange black and blue and knock Syracuse's ranking down a notch or two.
PICK: Maryland -2.5
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West Virginia Mountaineers (1-0, 0-1 ATS) @ Missouri Tigers (0-1, 0-1)
Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
Saturday, September 7th, 2019 12 PM
Spread: Mizzou -14, O/U: 62.5
Mizzou is coming off a brutal loss last week. As 17 point favourites, the Tigers lost to Wyoming; a program that shouldn’t be able to compete against any team in the SEC. The media had high hopes for Mizzou this summer and maybe the players were overlooking their lesser opponent for the first game. However, that should give them the necessary fuel to roll over West Virginia. The Mountaineers will be lucky to win 4 games this year and this game certainly won't be one of them. The Tigers will bounce back from last week.
PICK: MIZZOU -14
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6 LSU Tigers (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ 10 Texas Longhorns (1-0, 1-0)
Darrell K Royal Stadium, Austin, TX
Saturday, September 7th, 2019 7:30 PM
Spread: LSU -5.5, O/U 55.5
Biggest game of the weekend as fans are fired up for the first top 10 game of the season.
It’ll be a memorable one.
I'll be putting one player under the microscope in this matchup, Heisman candidate QB Sam Ehlinger. This guy is beginning his junior year and draft year. Sam is looking to build off of an impressive sophomore season; 41 total TDs and only 5 INTs. The soon-to-be first round draft pick can even improve on those numbers. Saturday night will be a true test to the QB against LSU, who always has one of the top defenses, this year is no different.
BUT Vegas is giving Ehlinger 5.5 points and it’s in his home barn. This pick is a no brainer.
PICK: TEXAS +5.5
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Miami Hurricanes (0-1, 1-0 ATS) @ North Carolina Tar Heels (1-0, 1-0)
Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
Saturday, September 7th, 8 PM
Spread: MIA -4.5, O/U 48
I can't figure out this spread. Sometimes that's a good thing and sometimes it's terrible. So lets roll the dice.
Miami is very solid and has improved from last year. They played at #11 Florida Gators in their only game this year, losing by 4 with several chances in the 4th to win. The last time these two teams met, the Hurricanes came out victorious 47-10. I thought this spread would’ve been more like -9 to -13 but hey, I’ll take 4 and a half instead.
PICK: MIAMI -4.5
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Green Bay Packers (0-0) @ Chicago Bears (0-0)
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Thursday, September 5th, 2019 8:20 PM
Spread: CHI -3, O/U 46.5
The NFL season is finally here with the perfect game to kick it off. Two of the oldest, most traditional teams going at it with realistic Super Bowl ambitions.
The Green Bay Packers have Aaron Rodgers, which already gives them an advantageous head start against the rest of the pack. Bolstered by their new offseason acquisitions Adrian Amos and Za’Darius Smith, who were both signed to deals where the Packers will pay them $101 m collectively over four years.
Then the Chicago Bears are coming off a 12-4 regular season and a tough playoff loss with the infamous double doink, narrowly missing the NFC semi-finals. They have returning studs Khalil Mack and Mitch Trubisky, as well as 2018/2019 Coach of the Year Matt Nagy. Both the Bears and Packers should finish with double digit wins this year and this game may decide who will win the division.
Quick Stats
- Bears 5-1 ATS L6 at home
- Bears 7-0 ATS L7 vs NFC North divisional games
PICK: BEARS -3
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Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Sunday, September 8th, 2019 1 PM
Spread: KC -4, O/U 52.5
The Chiefs are hungry this year. Pat Mahomes took them all the way to the AFC championship and they look to improve on that. KC starts off the season with a low key tough game here. Jacksonville will again have stout defense, while elevating offensively at the QB position with newly signed Nick Foles. I see this O/U as too high. The Chiefs won’t score 30 and win, meaning this game will stay under.
PICK: TOTAL POINTS UNDER 52.5
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Los Angeles Rams (0-0) @ Carolina Panthers (0-0)
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Sunday, September 8th, 2019 1 PM
Spread: Rams -3, O/U 50
Since 2000, teams that have lost the Super Bowl in the previous year are 3-15 ATS. But I don't follow trends and this Rams team is good. They had the best roster last year and looks like they’re opening with the strongest roster again. It’s a tough start to the season for them, as the 1 PM start will feel like 10 AM back home in LA. But the best football teams always thrive in these conditions and I’ll back the Super Bowl finalist for Week 1.
PICK: RAMS -3
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New York Giants (0-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (0-0)
AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX
Sunday, September 8th, 2019 4:25 PM
Spread: DAL -7, O/U 46
NY Football Giants vs America’s team, the Cowboys. PUKE.
Two semi-strong defenses with a battle between the running backs. Dallas’ offense may flounder a bit with Ezekiel spending his offseason in Cabo, not the greatest place for productivity. Although I am sure all the salsa dancing has burned off the taco and margarita diet he was on this summer. Luckily for the Cowboys, NY has Eli Manning aka the worst QB in the NFL. Sure, the Giants have Saquon Barkley at RB but he has a tough matchup against the Cowboys top 5 rush defense. This game will be won in the trenches and through the kicking game.
PICK: TOTAL POINTS UNDER 46