Bully The Bookie - Super Bowl Edition
2018-19 BULLY THE BOOKIE RECORD
NCAAF: 30-21-1
NFL: 31-26-4
NBA: 2-1 (2-1 last article)
NCAAB: 2-3 (2-3 last article)
Overall: 65-51-5 (4-4 last article)
The most popular spectacle in sport is finally here (excluding soccer because this is the Western World). This may mark the last weekend of football, but the winning picks below will be able to keep that post-super bowl depression at a minimum.
Super Bowl 53 will be played this Sunday in Atlanta, Georgia. Year after year, the Super Bowl takes more bets than any other game of the year. Now that the U.S has legalized betting, this game is expected to break records worldwide.
Follow @JDpowerblogger on twitter for daily picks on NBA, NCAA and more.
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New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 6:30 PM
Line: New England -2.5, O/U 57
Super Bowl 53 has all the narratives. Veteran vs Rookie, A 41-year old QB against a 33 year old coach, and lastly, an emerging dynasty battling an established dynasty.
All the headlines have been published, and now we wait to play it out.
But for those who can't wait, let me dive into my crystal ball for you like I have been all year.
The biggest matchup will be the Rams' D line against the Pats' O line. With DPOY Aaron Donald, former rookie DPOY Ndamukong Suh, and 3rd overall pick Dante Fowler on the Ram’s D line, it’s not surprising that this will be the Pats' primary focus. However, the Patriots have made adjustments and Brady hasn't been sacked once during these playoffs. KC was first in the league for sacks and the Chargers were fifth -- neither teams got to the GOAT once.
How?
Key player; FB James Develin played more snaps in both of those games than he did all regular season. Gronk ran the least amount of snaps in those games, staying in the pocket to add to the support cast protecting Brady.
If Belichick can outsmart McVay like he has done to his previous coaches, TB12 won't be touched. I will take the old head whose played in over ten Super Bowls over the second year coach any day. Coach Bill had Pat Mahomes scratching his head all game last week. This Sunday night, look for Belichick to turn Goff's brain into a pretzel long enough for New England to take a lead and ride it out.
The Rams roster may be stronger, but it's difficult to bet against the greatest dynasty ever. The Patriots will win Super Bowl 53 in a hard-fought, memorable match.
PICK: PATRIOTS -2.5 AND UNDER 57
PREDICTION: 31-24 PATRIOTS
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Disclaimer: Although obscure and outrageous, the following prop bets are authentic from Bodog and your best chance to profit this Sunday.
PROP BETS:
Coin Toss: Heads or Tails?
Tails never fails.
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National Anthem: How long will it take Gladys Knight to sing the US national anthem?
PICK: OVER 1 min 47 seconds -175
Heavy favourites for the over on this prop, consider this one the lock of the night. Gladys is the "Empress of Soul," she will want to stay in the spotlight for as long as possible. Also, after some investigative journalism in the music scene, I discovered soul singers love to hold the ‘Home of the Brave’ at the end of the anthem. We know Gladys got the pipes to hold that note and that final deep breathe is all we will need to jump over the minute 47 mark.
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James White receiving yards:
PICK: UNDER 55.5 +100
James White has turned into one of Brady’s favourite targets. He’s one of the most versatile backs in the league and will definitely be used a lot on Sunday. However, this total is just too high for a RB’s receiving yards. White has gone over 55 receiving yards in 7 of 18 games this far but only twice in his last 9 games. With the Patriots rotating through 3 or 4 players in their backfield, this is a safe UNDER play.
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Gronk total receptions:
PICK: UNDER 4.5 -110
Similar to the James White under, Brady has too many options. With everyone healthy, Gronk is actually more valuable to the team as a pass blocker (which we witnessed plenty in the playoffs). In Rob's last 10 games, he has only caught 5 or more passes twice. Look for the tight-end to be on the field every single play but expect him to help block the Rams potent D line majority of the time.
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CJ Anderson total rushing yards:
PICK: UNDER 49.5 -140
CJ is the back-up back. He took over for Gurley in the playoffs for reasons that I’m still not clear about. Gurley was struggling slightly but it is still Todd Gurley; likely the best RB in the league. My guess is a minor tweak that kept him sidelined but he's back and I don’t see CJ being much a factor in this game. He’ll get about 8 - 12 touches which won’t be enough to put him over this total.
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Super Bowl MVP:
PICK: Brady +130
If that Pats win, it'll be because of Tom. Since I am all in on the Patriots, Brady should be raking in his 6th Super Bowl and 5th SB MVP.
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First half total points:
PICK: UNDER 27.5 -120
This game has two potent offenses which marks the highest total in Super Bowl history. I already played the full game total but the first half total is even more of lock. As I wrote in my game preview, Belichick will confuse Goff early in this game which makes for a low point total in the first half.
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Will the game be tied again after 0-0?
PICK: YES -180
This bet plays to my prediction of a neck and neck, close game. Honestly, I think it’ll be tied again at 7-7 in the 1st quarter. Easy bet.
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Will there be a successful 2 point convert in the game?
PICK: YES +180 (2.8 to 1)
As I mentioned plenty, this game will be down to the wire. All we need is a 2 point convert attempt because if either of these offenses have a shot on the 2 yard line; they will punch it in.
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How many times will the announcers mention Ted Rath’s name? (just Rath counts)
PICK: UNDER 3.5 -250
For those who don’t know Ted Rath, he came to light this week as the “Get Back Coach." Although he has a pivotal role, will the announcers mention it 4 times? No. I definitely think Tony Romo will have some fun with it in the booth with a mention or two. But a strength and conditioning coach mentioned 4 times in the Super Bowl broadcast would be a little bizarre.
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Total Donald Trump tweets on Feb 3?
PICK: OVER 6 -140
I couldn't engage in this prop bet without perusing the president's twitter. I’m currently writing this column at about 10 AM on Thursday morning, and the POTUS has already put out 13 tweets. Now lets look at his amount of tweets on a regular Sunday like last week; 8 tweets. I have to think Trump will wake up with the standard, political rants like a good president should do and then later in the day, he’ll likely tweet about America's game to further prove his patriotism. Donald will keep his twitter fingers going strong on one of America's bigger days and will not let us down (in this case).
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What will be Maroon 5’s first song played?
11 options for this one.
PICK: I’d take the favourite, “Makes Me Wonder” +100. Nice even odds for that one and it’s their newest mainstream song. Seems like a safe bet. If you want to get risky, maybe take a shot at “She Will Be Loved” at +2200. 23 to 1 odds seems like a decent play for the Maroon 5 song that slaps the hardest.
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What will be the predominant colour of Adam Levine’s top at the start of his halftime performance?
PICK: Black -140
You have to go with black. Although I will admit, I’m not the hugest Adam Levine fan (meaning I don’t ever watch his live performances), but with that being said, I can NOT remember ever seeing this guy in something other than black on black. Can’t blame him. Black is slimming and only bandits wear all black.
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Will Travis Scott take a knee during his halftime performance?
NO -250
The odds are high because there’s been an online petition going around to try to convince Travis to take a knee. I think it’ll be too risky and too political for him in such a short performance. But mainly because taking a knee is usually done in protest during the national anthem. The national anthem will NOT be played during halftime and it would be unorthodox for Travis to take a knee while performing his songs.
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What colour of Gatorade will be dumped on the coach?
LIME/GREEN/YELLOW +225
CLEAR/WATER +225
ORANGE +400
BLUE +400
RED +600
PURPLE +1000 or 11 to 1 odds.
It’d be quite the payday if Belichick or McVay get purple drank dumped on their domes in celebration. Plus, purple Gatorade Fierce is low-key the greatest thirst quencher of all-time.
But most importantly, enjoy the game, gamble irresponsibly, and GO PATS!