Bully The Bookie - 01/12


2018-19 BULLY THE BOOKIE RECORD

NCAAF: 30-21-1 (1-1 last article)

NFL: 28-21-4 (3-1-1 last article)

Overall: 58-42-5 (4-2-1 last article)

Last weekend put the wild in Wild Card Weekend and this weekend will be no different. The 1 and 2 seeds from each conference are home favourites and it looks like Sin City is giving too much love there.

DISCLAIMER - Despite the huge spreads for the favourites, underdogs are 14-1 ATS in the last 15 NFL playoff games.

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Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

Saturday, January 12th, 2019 4:35 PM

PICK: Colts +5.5 AND UNDER 57.5 as the hottest team with the hottest QB gallop into Arrowhead stadium for the biggest game of both QB’s respective careers. After looking over the rosters of both teams, Colts are much stronger. KC has holes all over that defense and if it weren’t for the 35+ they put up per game, they most certainly wouldn’t be a number 1 seed.

Also, this Chiefs team is not the same without Kareem Punt. Ever since Kareem has been kicking it on Sunday afternoons, Kansas isn’t nearly as deadly. In the 5 games without him, they’re 3-2 overall but only 1-4 ATS. And it doesn't help that there's a whole season of video footage on Patrick Mahomes now compared to the start of the season.

It’ll be a FG game, athough KC should win outright. Colts will cover that number and I wouldn't be surprised if they can weasel the win.

Quick Stats

  • Colts are 10-1 in last 11

  • Colts are 12-4 ATS last 16 vs KC

  • Colts are 7-1 ATS last 8 in KC

  • 10 of last 13 games have gone UNDER in Arrowhead

  • Colts have gone last UNDER 6 of 8

  • KC is 1-10 L 11 playoff games

PREDICTION: 27-24 KC CHIEFS

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Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams

Saturday, January 12th, 2019 8:15 PM

PICK: COWBOYS +7 AND UNDER 49.5 as America’s team faces the Greatest Show on Turf 2.0. The Cowboys put on a rushing D clinic last week and it wasn’t against a slouch of a team either. Seattle came into last week leading the NFL in rushing yards per game and Dallas stood their ground to hold Russ and his Hawks to only 73 rushing yards. This week doesn’t get any easier for D Town’s D hogs. Cowboys front 7 will face another huge task this weekend, where they’ll face the league’s best RB; Todd Gurley.

The Rams may have a superstar lineup, however, the one major weakness is their rush defense. Their 23rd ranked rush D is NOT ready for the grown azz man Ezekiel Elliot coming into town. He will put up 100+ yards which will keep the Cowboys on the field long enough to make this a one score game.

Quick Stats

- LA RAMS started the year 3-0 ATS, since then 4-7-2 ATS

- Cowboys 6-2-1 ATS L9

- Cowboys have gone UNDER 10 of L12

PREDICTION: 24-20 LA RAMS

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Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

Sunday, January 13th, 2019 1 PM

PICK: CHARGERS +4 AND UNDER 47.5 as the league’s best road team travels across the country to face the league’s best home team. Something’s gotta give!

MORE DISCLAIMERS - Before I continue, I am the biggest Patriots fan I know. So for me to bet against them in the playoffs, I must be seeing this clearly.

Let’s look at the Chargers first because these guys can ball. The best roster in the NFL with 7 pro bowlers as well as an 8-1 road record this year, including a solid postseason win in Baltimore last week. On offense, QB Philip Rivers is having a near MVP season and the 37 year old knows that this may be his very last chance at the trophy. The defensive side is where the Chargers are even more dangerous. D linemen like Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and Uchenna Nwosu caused problems last weekend. The 7 sacks and 9 QB hits to Lamar Jackson last week had fans calling for a washed up Joe Flacco to come off the bench. Tom Brady may be in similar trouble. We all know Brady isn’t the swiftest of foot, so if his O line isn’t perfect it could lead to a lot of grass stains for TB12.

Now lets look at the sideline advantage the Pats have year after year -- Bill Belichick may be the greatest to ever get behind the clipboard but even he won't have the cards to beat LA. With only 2 pro bowlers this year, this is one of the weaker Patriot teams the NFL has seen this century. Chargers will win this game. I’m playing +4 but play it straight up to win if you’re confident. The LAC line is currently +175.

Quick Stats

- Chargers haven’t lost outside of Cali this season

- LAC 8-1 ATS on the road this year

- UNDER has hit 8 of L9 Patriot’s games (avr score 40.4)

- Chargers own the 6th best road D (under 20 per game)

PREDICTION: 27-17 CHARGERS

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Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday, January 13th, 2019 4:25 PM

PICK: EAGLES +8 AND UNDER 51 as the SuperBowl Champs sneak their way into another game where they don't belong. Nick Foles is some sort of second coming of Christ. I still can't figure out if he's good or if he sold his soul to the devil, but when he plays, the Eagles win. Even when they don't deserve to win like last week, they still find a way.

Thanks, Cody Parkey!

The double doink that could be heard around the world.

Now lets look at this week. They go into New Orleans to play the Saints. The very same Saints team that beat the Eagles 48-7 just two months ago. Although, that was the Carson Wentz led Eagles team. Nick Foles just produces the improbable. I can’t bet against him and his pack of underdogs and I don’t know why I did last week.

Let’s be clear, the New Orleans Saints are SuperBowl favourites for a reason and they are still very much so my pick to win it all. The Saints are undefeated at home in the playoffs when Sean Payton has been the head coach. I do not think the Eagles win this game but how does Vegas have them as 8 point dogs?? Odd odds. Lay the money on the reigning SuperBowl champs.

Quick Stats

- Eagles are 4-0 and 4-0 ATS since Foles took over in week 15

- Eagles have gone UNDER in 4 of L6 road games

- Saints have gone UNDER in 5 of L7 games

PREDICTION: 27-20 SAINTS