Bully The Bookie: 01/05
2018 BULLY THE BOOKIE RECORD
NCAAF: 29-20-1 (3-1 last article)
NFL: 25-20-3 (2-2 last article)
Overall: 54-40-4 (5-3 last article)
The holidays are over and 2019 has begun. Time to start spending all that Christmas coin. New year, new picks, more money. NFL wild card and the college football final all kickoff this weekend. So sit tight and let’s bully the bookie.
We'll start by going over the full NFL playoff picture and futures bets on who will win SuperBowl 53.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
The #5 LA Chargers are going a road mission to get to this game. I have them beating the Ravens in Baltimore, then going into Gillette Stadium to beat New England. Those two wins will get them to the AFC ship. The #1 AFC seed, KC Chiefs, will win back to back home games to make it to SuperBowl 53.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
The NFC #1 seed NO Saints will not lose a home game. The #2 seed LA Rams will follow suit and go undefeated in home games as well. I have the Rams visiting New Orleans for the NFC ship where the Saints will take care of business to get Drew Brees back to the big game.
SuperBowl 53
KC Chiefs vs NO Saints. My expertise tell me if this is the matchup, the spread would be around -3 for the Saints, and I’d put it all on the line for the Saints. This is Drew Brees’ year. He's aware this could be his last good opportunity at the title and he won’t miss his shot. Saints potent offense and tough front 7 will capture SuperBowl 53.
NFL Futures
Saints vs Chiefs to meet in SB 53 +600 (7:1)
Saints to win SB 53 +250 (3.5:1)
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Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Saturday, January 5th 4:35 PM
PICK: COLTS +1 as an AFC rivalry will begin the 2019 NFL playoffs. Indianapolis finished the regular season on a heater. After starting the season 1-5, the Colts won 9 of their last 10 to weasel their way into a wild card spot. Colts coach Frank Reich, my vote for coach of the year, seems to have his team playing better every week. In first year with Indy, his biggest improvement was with the O line. Andrew Luck was limited to a league leading 18 sacks this year. If the O line can stop the defensive stars like JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, the Texans won’t stand a chance. Lay down the dollars on Luck and lock it up.
Quick Facts
Colts are 5-0-1 ATS last 6 in Houston
Texans are 3-8-2 last 13 vs Indy
Road teams won both matchups between these teams this season
PREDICTION: 27-21 COLTS
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Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
Saturday, January 5th 8:15 PM
PICK: SEAHAWKS +2 Because you can never bet against Primetime Russell Wilson. Russ and his Seahawks are 5-0 ATS last 5 prime time games where Seattle was the underdog. Also, they're 25-6-4 ATS in their last 35 night time games. The Seahawks are a stronger coached team and they have far more playoff experience.
PREDICTION: 24-14 Seahawks
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Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, January 6th 1 PM
PICK: CHARGERS +3 AND UNDER 41.5 as LA and Baltimore have a rematch from two weeks ago. On December 22, the Ravens traveled to LA and bullied the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. However, that game means nothing since the Chargers had a playoff position and wasn't going to reveal too much to the Ravens. Baltimore had their backs against the wall. They played their hearts out down the stretch to win the AFC North. And unfortunately for Baltimore, LAC will have their star RB Melvin Gordon back for this Sunday’s game. He will be sure to show the Ravens a few plays they weren't familiar with two weeks ago. Veteran Chargers QB Philip Rivers is running out of time to hoist the trophy, and with 7 pro bowlers, this is the strongest team he's been apart of. Rivers and Gordon will show up big time in Baltimore to put up enough points against the Raven’s #2 D to narrowly win this game.
Quick Facts
Chargers 6-0 ATS and straight up last 6 road games
LAC’s 7-1 road record this year was the best in the NFL
Ravens own #2 D and Chargers have #8 D
PREDICTION: 20-17 CHARGERS
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Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, January 6th 4:25 PM
PICK: BEARS -6 as the defending SuperBowl champs are coming to town. Eagles starting QB Carson Wentz will miss the playoffs for the 2nd straight year. But weirdly enough, Eagles fans are not worried and for good reason. Back up QB Nick Foles would be a starter on nearly half of the teams in the league, plus he led the Eagle’s to their surprise SuperBowl run last year. Although, unfortunately for the city of brotherly love and Big Dick Nick, this year will not be as magical. For one, they won’t catch anyone sleeping like they did in last year’s postseason. Secondly, this team is still very injured.
From RB injuries to DB issues, Philly's medical staff this year is certainly earning their pay.
DA BEARS will win this game handily. With the best defense in the league and home field advantage; young QB Trubisky only has to be mediocre to win, which he will be and they will win.
Quick Facts
- Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10
- Bears are 7-1 ATS at home this year
PREDICTION: 27-10 BEARS
Those are your NFL locks for wild card weekend, but the gridiron grudge matches won't stop there. The college football season will have its finale on Monday evening with two powerhouse programs meeting in the ship for the second time in three years
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs Clemson Tigers
Monday, January 7th 8 PM
PICK: ALABAMA -6 AND OVER 58.5 as #1 will take down #2 in a championship game that could’ve been predicted four months ago. Bama is extremely good and I can't put enough emphasis on that. I look at both their opponents this year and Bama consistently beat up on better teams. The SEC is undoubtedly stronger than the ACC. Bama has been favourites all year, in fact, their smallest spread of the season was last week and it was -14. For the Crimson Tide to be favourited by under a TD seems easy to jump on -- so get to it. The OVER pick is a little trickier since both teams have top 5 defenses.
BUT, these two stud underclass QBs will drive the total over 60. Clemson's QB Trevor Lawrence is only 19 but took the starting QB job away from Kelly Bryant, who didn't take kindly to that and opted to transfer shortly after. Lawrence has thrived since taking the new role. 20 year old Tua Tagovailoa is a lefty which automatically makes him sick. His hideous Tebow-like form is electric and he should be able to sling a couple deep balls for our two bets.
PREDICTION: 38-27 ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE