Bully The Bookie: 12/15
After a bit of a mid-season slump, Brown Bagging Media is back to giving atomic wedgies to the bookie, bullying him with a 6-1-1 record last week. But if you missed last week and you're trying to secure the bag, scroll down and double down with your bookie this weekend.
YEAR TO DATE BULLY THE BOOKIE RECORD
NCAAF: 26-19-1 (1-0-1 last week)
NFL: 23-18-3 (5-1 last week)
Overall: 49-37-4 (6-1-1 last week)
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Tis the Season... Bowl season.
AutoNation Cure Bowl
Tulane Green Wave vs Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
Saturday, December 8th, 1:30 PM
PICK: GREEN WAVE -3.5 as Bowl season kicks off. I’ll keep this one simple because these are two teams that not many people have seen play before. Tulane, an AAC team, is going to a bowl game for the first time in five years and it’s the first bowl game outside of their home state since 2002; they’re fired up. The Ragin’ Cajuns, a Sun Belt team, have played Tulane a total of 28 times, winning 6 of those matchups. Tulane is a triple option team and they have put up 210 rushing yards per game this year. Louisiana on the other hand, is ranked 107th in rushing D. I’m predicting a wave of long rushing TDs early from the Green Wave.
PREDICTION: 33-20 TULANE
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NEW MEXICO BOWL
North Texas Mean Green vs Utah State Aggies
Saturday, December 15th, 2 PM
PICK: OVER TOTAL 67 as two top 25 offenses meet in New Mexico. As most of you may know, the top scoring offenses in the country are Alabama and Oklahoma. Although, not many may know who ranks third; cue the Aggies. Utah State is led by sophomore Jordan Love, however, he has shown no love to his opponents, putting up 47 points per game with a two-headed rushing attack. On the other side of the field, North Texas is no slouch. They enter as the 20th ranked offense and should have no problem scoring on Saturday. Although statistically both school’s defense rank in the top 40, neither has seen an offense as potent as what they’ll face this weekend. For that reason, I give a large advantage to both of these offensive-minded programs in what will be a shootout till the end.
PREDICTION: AGGIES 45-42
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LAS VEGAS BOWL
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Arizona State Sun Devils
Saturday, December 15th, 3:30 PM
PICK: BULLDOGS -4.5 as Mountain West Champs, Fresno, will get a shot at a Power 5 conference team. This matchup is one of the most profitable for betting. A top mid-major school getting the chance at playing an average power 5 conference school in post-season play. One team is hyper-excited to try to and beat a big program, while Arizona State is use to playing PAC12 action in massive stadiums like UCLA and Oregon, instead of neutral territory in Las Vegas with a half-full stadium. Lock up the victors of the MW Conference in what should be an ugly blowout in Sin City.
Quick Stats
- Fresno has the 3rd ranked D in the country
- Fresno only gives up 13 points per game
- AZ State has won 4 of last 5 BUT they haven’t played since NOV 24 (negates the hot streak)
PREDICTION: FRESNO STATE 40-20
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NEW ORLEANS BOWL
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs Appalachian State Mountaineers
Saturday, December 15th, 9 PM
PICK: Mountaineers -6.5 as one more top ranked defense will be in action on Saturday. The Mountaineers have the 6th best D overall and the 3rd best passing D. Now, let’s look at MTSU’s QB Brent Stocksill. His dad, aka Coach Rick, will coach his son for the last time on Saturday. However, I don’t think it’ll be a fun farewell game for the duo.
The 6 year senior took a while to start in college football and for obvious reason; he can barely throw. Not to be harsh, but you can see for yourself Saturday night. Due to Brent's inability to throw, this strong Mountaineers defense will be able to focus on the run and push the secondary closer to the line of scrimmage. So look for App St to take advantage of Stocksill’s noodle arm as they’ll ruin this father and son moment Saturday.
PREDICTION: Appalachian State 27-17
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That will get your mouth wet for bowl season, as we will cover more bowl games moving forward. Now, onto week 14 of the NFL with a couple Saturday games this week.
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
Saturday, December 15th, 8:20 PM
PICK: Broncos -3 as the Browns are turning heads this year just not on the road. The 5 win Browns could lose the rest of their games this season and it would still be considered a successful one in Cleveland. Out of those 5 wins, only 1 has come on the road and it was in Cincy when the Bengals QB suffered a season ending injury. The Broncos home record is merely 3-3 but we will look further into that. Out of their 6 home games this far, 5 of those teams currently hold a playoff spot: Seahawks, Chiefs, Rams, Steelers, and Texans. So to win 3 of 6 is actually impressive. The Browns bandwagon is fun to be on but lay the money on the Mile High squad in a stadium that doesn’t usually bode well for visitors.
Quicks Stats
Browns are 1-24 in their last 25 road games
Browns have the 6th worst road defense this season
Broncos are 7-0 last 7 vs Cleveland (5-1-1 ATS)
PREDICTION: DENVER 27-17
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Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, December 16th, 1 PM
PICK: Colts -3 as two of the hotter teams in NFL meet at Lucas Oil Stadium.
These Colts are legit. Andy Luck is healthy and Reich’s offensive mind has this Indy team tied for the last wild card spot. Currently tied for the final seed, the Colts need to stay hot if they want a postseason appearance. The Cowboys on the other hand, have pretty much sealed up the NFC East. Winners of 5 straight, Dallas’ defense has been coming up big lately, Texas-sized big. However, the way I see this game is which team wants it more. Dallas is coming off huge wins with the Saints upset, divisional wins, and OT win against Philly last weekend. But this matchup will be a letdown for Jerry Jones and Cowboys fans. The Colts cannot afford a loss at this point of the season. 4 teams currently have 7 wins and if the Colts lose on Sunday, the playoffs will be off the table.
Quick Stats
Dallas owns the 5th worst road offense
Colts have won 6 of their last 7
PREDICTION: INDIANAPOLIS 24 - 20
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Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants
Sunday, December 16th, 1 PM
PICK: Titans +1.5 as Sin City has mistakenly favoured the wrong team.
This run was rude. Some people have argued that it was poor defense and tackling, but it was just the 2nd 99 yard TD in NFL history featuring 2 highlight reel stiff arms along the way. Legendary run by Derrick Henry.
Titans will keep rolling this weekend. They played last Thursday which gives them a little extra time to prepare for this Giants team that has played well. It’s the story of too little too late for NY. After starting the season 1-7, they’ve won 4 of their last 5. Although, only one of those teams was above .500 and that was the Bears without Mitch Trubisky. Deep down the Giants are still the 1-7 team that began the season. Also, the Titans are another one of those 7 win teams tied for the final spot in the AFC. They need this win. Lay the money on Tennessee who will win this by a FG.
PREDICTION: TENNESSEE 23 - 21
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New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, December 16th, 4:25 PM
PICK: Patriots -2.5 since who would’ve guessed the Steelers would be fighting for their playoff lives. Pittsburgh currently leads the AFC North, but only by half a game. And that half a game lead is the same lead they have on the final wild card spot. Meaning when they lose this Sunday to New England, they will be on the outside looking in.
These Steelers are drama queens. Le’veon Bell started the season with his holdout, Ben and AB seem to argue on the sidelines or locker room every other week, and most recently in week 13, Big Ben sat for roughly half a game because of an injury that was non-existent. After Ben was ready to return from injury, but coach Tomlin decided to stick with the second string QB, Pittsburgh lost to the worst team in the NFL. This led to a lot of post-game finger pointing and it seems like Tomlin's days in Steel City are numbered.
PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND 34 - 27