Bully The Bookie: 12-08
YEAR TO DATE BULLY THE BOOKIE RECORD
NCAAF: 25-19 (2-3 last week)
NFL: 18-17-3 (2-2 last week)
Overall: 43-36-3 (4-5 last week)
Only one NCAA game in play this weekend, but it’s an American classic. With the number of college games lacking this week, we will throw in extra NFL picks to compensate for our beloved degenerate gamblers.
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Navy Midshipmen vs Army Black Knights
Saturday, December 8th, 3 PM
This patriotic rivalry is as old as time. Beginning in 1890, when players didn't have the privileged of pads and helmets, resembling a football game in the schoolyard at recess.
Army, from West Point, NY, and Navy, from Annapolis, MD, will meet up at the equidistant of both teams in the City of Brotherly Love. The home of the Eagles, Lincoln Memorial Stadium will host this year’s rivalry.
Since the turn of the century, Navy has been dominant when these guys meet. Navy won 14 straight games from 2002 to 2015, until Army won the last two matchups. As for another profitable trend; the UNDER has hit in this matchup the last 12 games. The under has been consistent for one obvious reason -- the triple option. The triple option is a running play that a few teams in college football actually base their whole offensive scheme around. Navy and Army are two of the nation’s triple option teams. It’s a fascinating play. The teams that do it well abuse this play, running it over and over even when the defenses can predict it.
Before we get into the outcome of the game, I will present you with a few under the table prop bets to get your mouth wet before you start laying the real dollars down. With President Trump in attendance, these prop bets are oriented around his presence.
Will Trump wear his MAGA hat???
PICK: NO -110 as it is too cold for summer caps. But don't be surprised if you see him sporting a MAGA toque.
Will Trump stay for the entire game?
PICK: NO -140 as it will be too chilly for the prima donna president and these events are usually just a publicity stunt anyways.
Will Trump take a knee during the anthem?
PICK: NO -100000000000000 definitely a safe bet.
As we look into this year's teams, Army should win for the third year in a row. They’re the stronger team on both sides of the ball as they come into this weekend with a 9-2 record. Navy on the other hand, comes into this rivalry with a record of 3-9. Now if we look at total points, I see both teams that run the ball over 90% of the time and both teams that would see the triple option offense every week in practice. Big double pick here, let’s crush our bookies with the only game this Saturday.
PICKS: ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS -7 AND UNDER 40.5 TOTAL POINTS
PREDICTION: BLACK KNIGHTS 24 - MIDSHIPMEN 7
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Now onto bigger fish to fry in week 14 of the NFL, as we’re getting into the playoff HUNT as teams look to KICK other teams out of contention.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Thursday, December 6th, 8:20 PM
PICK: TITANS -4.5 as Tennessee attempts to continue their home field success against division rivals on Thursday Night. The Titans are the stronger team, no questions asked. However, they've been oddly inconsistent with blowout wins against the Pats and losses against the Bills. Although, I’ll stay focused on the Titans home records when making this pick. The Titans are 4-1 at home with wins over Houston, Philly and New England. They will easily handle a weaker Jags team that may not score a TD again for the 2nd straight week.
Quick Stats
- JAX is 2-12 last 14 road games vs their division
- JAX is 0-4 ATS last 4 in Tennessee
- Titans are 10-2 last 12 home games
SCORE: 20-6 TITANS
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New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Sunday, December 9th, 1 PM
PICK: New York Giants -4 as I absolutely have to bet against Mr. Butt Fumble.
With Alex Smith and Colt McCoy’s season ending injuries, the Redskins’ QB decision was between a rock and a hard place; Mark Sanchez or RGIII. Washington took the former going with a recently signed Sanchez who has one practice under his belt with his new squad. Sure, the Giants may not be that much stronger but they're on the up and up. They’ve won 3 of their last 4 with the only loss being a 3 point L. Another reason to lay your money with the Giants, evenly matched divisional teams trend towards splitting the series. Therefore, Eli leads his Giants to their 5th win of the season against the walking meme Sanchez and his Deadskins.
27-14 Giants.
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Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns
Sunday, December 9th, 1 PM
PICK: Browns +1.5 as this Panthers team have been playing like kittens on the road this year. The losers of 4 straight and 5 of 6 road games; Carolina’s playoff hopes are hanging by a thread. The Browns, on the other hand, thrive at home -- for Cleveland standards. When playing in Cleveland, they are 3-2-1 this season which is insane when you consider the Browns poor history. Cleveland’s turnover ratio at home leads the league with +1.5 per game. AND, Newton’s 8 of 11 INTs this season have come on the road. So if I crunched the numbers correctly, he should be good for two picks this Sunday. Browns should NOT be the underdogs in this one. Play Cleveland to win.
27-24 Browns.
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New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Sunday, December 9th, 1 PM
PICK: DOLPHINS +7.5 as Tom Brady and the Patriots head into their least favourite stadium. Hard Rock Stadium is not a place Belichick and Brady enjoy. It is the only stadium in the NFL that those two legends have a losing record in. The Dolphins have a rich history in playing stronger at home. Throughout Brady's years, the fins have done a good job at creating pressure and hitting him. This year will be no different.
Cameron Wake posted 10 sacks last season for the 5th time in his career. The QB he's sacked the most? Tom Brady. Expect Cameron to give a couple more Wake up calls to the Goat this Sunday.
Quick Stats
- When the Pats and Miami meet, the home team is 11-1 ATS
- Dolphins are 5-1 ATS at home this year
- Pats are 1-4 ATS last 5 at Hard Rock
24-21 Patriots.
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Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, December 9th, 4:05 PM
PICK: BRONCOS -4.5 as Sin City undervalues Denver, again this week. Broncos have an unpredictable trend against the spread. In their first 6 games, they failed to cover the spread. But since then, Denver has beat the spread 6 out of their last 7. That basically summarizes this team’s season. They under-performed early, but through the first half of the season, they did have the toughest schedule in the NFL. Broncos drew the short straw this year already playing the Seahawks, Rams, Steelers, Ravens and the Chiefs twice. All 5 of those teams currently sit in a playoff spot. BUT, this season they’ve taken care of their weaker opponents; cue the San Fran 49ers. The 49ers are brutal. Since QB Jimmy G had season ending surgery, they have not been competitive. They started the year 1-1 and since then, they’ve been 1-9. Bay city cannot keep up in this league without Jimmy, therefore, with the Broncos stampeding their way to town, I don’t expect this game to be close.
30-10 Broncos.
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Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
Monday, December 10th, 8:15 PM
PICK: SEAHAWKS -3 as Seattle sport fans are going to be treated this week to more than just gridiron greatness.
Gary Buttman and the NHL recently announced Seattle as the new destination for the next NHL team. Big news for this sports city -- and there's even more to cheer about.
Seahawks are winners of 3 straight as Pete Carroll finally has his team clicking on both sides of the ball. Both the Seahawks and Vikings have a wild card spot in the NFC right now, but one of them will fall to the outside looking in after MNF. We bet against the Vikings last week because of their road story and this week is no different. Minny has only won 2 of 6 road games this season. Seattle, on the other hand, has one of the best home field advantages in the league. Take the Seahawks in what should be an incredible game to cap off week 14.
Quick Stats
- Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS last 8 overall
- Vikings are 1-4 ATS last 5 games in Seattle
- Seahawks are 14-3-3 ATS last 20 home prime-time games
27-17 Seahawks.