Bully The Bookie: 12-01
Two half point L’s last week resulted in a small loss, but it's a sign. Because when you’re that close to beating the books, the gambling gods will look down on this week’s article to even the odds.
YEAR TO DATE BULLY THE BOOKIE RECORD
NCAAF: 23-16 (3-4 last week)
NFL: 16-15-3 (2-3 last week)
Overall: 39-31-3 (5-7 last week)
All the D1 conferences have their championship games this weekend. This will surely bring some heroes and heartbreak to light. There’s a lot on the line for many teams: Alabama, Clemson, and UCF will play to defend their undefeated seasons, while teams like Georgia, Oklahoma and Ohio State are all fighting for that final playoff spot and a shot at the national title.
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11 Washington Huskies vs 17 Utah Utes
Friday, November 30th, 8 PM
PICK: UNDER 45 as Levi’s Stadium, home of the 49ers, will host the PAC12 championship. The Huskies are looking for their 2nd PAC12 ring in three years while the Utes are looking for their first title in program history. Both of these teams have made it this far with similar strategies; dominate the line of scrimmage. Utah and Washington love running the ball, but more importantly, they love to stop the run. With both teams putting the ball on the ground early and often, that clock won’t stop ticking. Lock it up.
Quick Facts
- Washington has 10th best D, allowing only 16.5 per game
- Utah has 16th best D, allowing only 18.55 per game
- Utes and Huskies met earlier this season, 28 total points in that game
PREDICTION: 20-14 HUSKIES
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Alabama-Birmingham Blazers vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
Saturday, December 1st, 1:30 PM
PICK: MSTU -1.5 as the C-USA championship will be a rematch from 7 days prior. Last week the Blazers went to Murfreesboro, TN for their last regular season game. Now, this Saturday, they are going right back there with a Conference USA title on the line. With that being said, this spread confuses me. Last week’s nearly-identical game finished 27-3 for the Blue Raiders. MTSU is 7-0 at home this year while covering the spread in 6 of those games. I am unsure why this spread is so low but I am positive you should bet it.
PREDICTION: 23-13 BLUE RAIDERS
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1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs 4 Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, December 1st, 4 PM
PICK: ALABAMA -13 as we finally get last year’s national title rematch. Alabama won last year’s championship in OT by a score of 26-23. That game will forever be remembered for Nick Saban’s most brilliant and boldest coaching move ever executed. With Alabama down 13-0 at half, Saban handed the reigns to true freshmen Tua Tagovailoa to take over as QB. Tua proceeded to cement his name among college football legends, throwing for 3 TDs including a beautiful 41 yard TD pass in OT to seal the victory.
Since then, Tua and Bama haven’t lost. The 12-0 Crimson Tide have been as dominant as any team I can remember. They completed their season finishing with the 3rd highest scoring offense at 49 points and the 3rd best scoring defense at 13.8 points per game, and to add, they’ve won their 12 games by an average of over 35 points. The Bulldogs are strong contenders this year, but in all honesty, I haven’t seen anyone who can ball with Bama this season. Even if Georgia hangs around in the first half, Bama’s relentless defense and big play offense will take these Bulldogs right back to the animal shelter.
PREDICTION 38-17 CRIMSON TIDE
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25 Fresno State Bulldogs vs 22 Boise State Broncos
Saturday, December 1st, 8 PM
PICK: BOISE STATE -2.5 AND UNDER 52.5 as I address the first double pick in Bully the Bookie history. History controls the narrative in this matchup. Boise State will repeat history going back-to-back as the Broncos handled Fresno 17-14 in Boise, Idaho last year. Sure, last year's team has very little to do with this season. However, this season they had a rematch in Boise with the Broncos winning 24-17. This weekend should be no different.
Quick Facts
- Broncos have won 11 of last 13 in this matchup
- Broncos have won the last 5 against Fresno when playing in Boise
- Last 4 meetings have gone UNDER
- Fresno’s last 10 of 11 road games have gone UNDER
PREDICTION 27-17 BRONCOS
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Now if championship college football isn't enough to fulfill your fantasy football needs, tune in to Sunday for week 13 action.
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, December 2nd, 1 PM
PICK: Broncos -4.5 as the underrated Broncos travel to the beautiful city of Cincinnati to play some football and visit their two buildings. Broncos are coming off of an impressive win vs the Steelers. The defense went on a sacking spree against Big Ben six times resulting in four turnovers. As they go into Cincy this weekend, that hungry D is licking its chops because they are going after some fresh meat. Jeff Driskel, the 2nd year QB out of Florida, will finally get a chance to make his first NFL start. He will be up against one of the best pass rushers in the game, Von Miller. I’m predicting it’ll be a game to forget for the inexperienced Driskel.
But it's the most experienced member of the Bengals that will be the primary reason they lose. Cincy hired Hue Jackson less than two weeks ago. The worst coach in NFL history. Anything he touches turns to crap and the fans agree. Last week the Bengals hosted the Browns, Jackson’s old team.
Not a good look.
PREDICTION 31-17 BRONCOS.
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Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers
Sunday, December 2nd, 1 PM
PICK: OVER 44.5 as the Jekyll & Hyde Packers return home to Lambeau. Aaron Rodgers and his Packers have dropped 8 straight road games and their playoff hopes have dwindled if not completely vanished already. This is not the same Green Bay offense we’ve become accustomed to seeing, but this Cardinals defense will have Rodgers waking up on the right side of the bed this Sunday morning. Rodgers and his offense have scored over 30 per game at Lambeau this season while the Cardinals come in with the 3rd worse D in the league. Last week, Arizona gave up 45 to the Chargers while allowing Phillip Rivers to break a NFL record when he completed 25 STRAIGHT passes. Aaron Rodgers may get 26 straight this week.
Quick Facts
- Cardinals have gone OVER in 5 of their last 7
- Packers have gone OVER in 24 of their last 33
PREDICTION 34-20 PACKERS
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Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 2nd, 1 PM
PICK: Indianapolis -4.5 as these two teams are trending in complete opposite directions. The AFC finalists last year are 3-8 this season and have lost 7 straight. In those 7 losses, they haven’t beat the spread once. As for the Colts, they're winners of 5 straight led by QB Andy Luck, who seems to be knocking boots with Lady Luck as he has remained healthy all season. Andy has a history of shoulder problems which has directly affected the Colts record. Now that he is 100%, the Colts are, too.
If that's not enough, the Jags will be without some key pieces this week.
Firstly, RB Leonard Fournette decided to square up last week, earning himself a suspension and possibly some broken knuckles. Secondly, Jags are benching starting QB Blake Bortles to give Cody Kessler a shot. This will be Kessler’s 9th NFL start. He is 0-8 after his first 8 attempts. And lastly, Jags lost their best O linemen, and their loudmouth star CB Jalen Ramsey is doubtful due to injuries. I can’t see the Jaguars even being close in this one.
PREDICTION 34-14 COLTS
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Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots
Sunday, December 2nd, 4:25 PM
PICK: New England -5.5 since you should never second-guess the Pats at home in December. Throughout his career, Tom Brady has won 58 games at home in December, totaling in a 87% winning percentage. The Pats own December more than Baby Jesus does. Now with Gronk and Sony Michel fully healthy again, they will finally have their entire offensive arsenal on the field at the same time. Brady must be giddy.
But let’s turn our attention to the Vikings; a solid NFC playoff team that hasn’t been as strong on the road. In their 5 road games this year, they’ve only come out victorious twice. Minnesota won’t be able to keep up with the Brady bunch as New England’s December success will continue.
34-24 PATRIOTS.