Bully The Bookie: 11/10
After breaking even with the bookie last week, you will notice major paydays in the games I chose this week. Four home teams will win by a landslide on Saturday. As for Sunday, we look at four road teams that will beat the odds in Sin City.
YEAR TO DATE BULLY THE BOOKIE RECORD
NCAAF: 17-7 (2-2 last week)
NFL: 10-9-2 (2-2 last week)
Overall: 25-14-2 (4-4 last week)
Vanderbilt Commodores (4-5, 5-4 ATS) @ Missouri Tigers (5-4, 5-4 ATS)
Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO, Saturday November 10th, 12PM EST
Line: Missouri -17, O/U 63
All eyes on Drew Lock in this SEC matchup, as he eyes the 2019 NFL draft.
Lock will go early in the 2019 draft; CBS sports projects him as the 2nd best Quarterback for this class.
The senior is certainly the best QB in school history, but now, he’s added himself to an iconic list of the best to play in the SEC; college’s top conference.
Next stop, the league.
But first, he’s going to light the Commodores up. Lock gave a warm-welcome back to his favourite WR Emanuel Hall returning from injury last weekend. After 6 games off, the talented wideout led the team in receiving yards with 77 and found the endzone against 11th ranked Florida. Look for Hall to be the deep threat and destroy Vandy’s secondary. Let your bookie know you have Drew and Mizzou because this is the lock of the week.
Quick Stats
- Mizzou 4-1 ATS at home this year
- Drew Lock’s TD:INT ratio at home this year is 14:1
- Vanderbilt averages just 13 points per game in the last 10 games when these two teams have played
PICK: MIZZOU -17
PREDICTION: TIGERS 45 - COMMODORES 20
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Extra College Plays
#18 Mississippi State Bulldogs @ #1 Alabama Roll Tide
PICK: BAMA -24 as the most dominant team I’ve ever witnessed comes home after an impressive throttling in Death Valley. Saban’s unbeatable team is 9-0 this year with an average winning margin of 37.22 points. This season, they’ve beat every team by 25+ points except for one game where they beat Texas A&M by 22. ROLL TIDE 45-13
Navy Midshipmen @ #11 Central Florida Knights
PICK: UCF -25 as the Knights look for the 22nd straight win. To say Navy is on a slump would be an understatement. They’ve lost their last 5 by an average of 22.4 and their 114th ranked defense is the worst in program history. UCF’s 6th ranked high-powered offense may not be stopped all game. KNIGHTS 63-14
Texas Christian Horned Frogs @ #7 West Virginia Mountaineers
PICK: WV -12 as the Mountaineers are led by another NFL prospect QB Will Grier, who will look to build off the momentum win at Texas last weekend. Instead of playing it safe after a last-minute TD, WV dialed up Grier’s number to punch in the 2 point convert which won the game with less than a minute left. TCU is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 BIG12 games. MOUNTAINEERS 34-13
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New Orleans Saints (7-1, 6-2 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH, Sunday November 11th, 1PM EST
Line: New Orleans -5.5, O/U 54
The best team in the NFL will continue to stay hot on the road. The Saints’, winners of 7 straight, took down the previously undefeated LA Rams in a thriller last week. In the mid-season Super Bowl, Jared Goff and his Rams could not keep up with Drew Brees’ pace. The 45-35 shootout that took place was likely a preview to the NFC Championship.
With a top 3 RB, top 3 WR and top 3 QB, the only way the Saints lose again this year is if someone can put up a 50 spot on them.
Dez Bryant is certainly no Saint, but after signing on Wednesday, he plans to return from his football hiatus with New Orleans. And if Bryant can still play, Goodell may as well make the Saints Super Bowl rings right now.
Quick Stats
- Saints have scored 34.88 points per game (2nd in NFL)
- Bengals gave up 35.66 last 3 games and 30th overall on the season
- Saints 5-0 ATS last 5 road games
PICK: NEW ORLEANS -5.5
PREDICTION: SAINTS 34 - BENGALS 27
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New England Patriots (7-2, 6-3 ATS) @ Tennessee Titans (4-4, 5-3 ATS)
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN, Sunday November 11th, 1PM EST
Line: New England -7, O/U 46.5
The 2nd hottest team in the NFL prepares for a week 10 challenge right before their bye week. The Patriots have won 6 straight, including taking down powerhouses such as KC and Green Bay.
It’s the Patriot way. Every year they slightly flounder when beginning the campaign (26-10 loss to Detroit). Then the headlines come out, everyone questions Belichick and Brady, they question if the Pats are still a dynasty - and the Pats answer correctly while showing all their work for each question for full marks.
Widely-considered The Goat, Tom Brady has surpassed the 40 year old mark and has not displayed any signs of slowing down. This year, as a 41 year old, Tom may not win the MVP again, but 280 yards per game to go along with 17 TDs should be enough for his 14th Pro Bowl appearance.
Brady has been clicking with his old favourites such as James White, Edelman and GRONK. But he has made some news friends this year, and it seems that his new wideout is enjoying his new home.
From Cleveland, to rehab (not sure which one is worse), to New England, Flash Gordon has definitely turned his life around for the better and it's paying off.
Quick Stats
- Patriots are 9-0 and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 before a bye week
- Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs Titans
- Patriots beat Titans 35-14 in last year’s playoff matchup
PICK: NEW ENGLAND -7
PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 27 - TITANS 17
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Extra NFL Plays
Atlanta Falcons @ Cleveland Browns
PICK: Atlanta -6.5 as the Falcons are finally starting to play the way they’re expected to. They’re slowly getting healthier and it’s showing. After a bye week, Hotlanta torched the NFC east leading Redskins last week. Look for them to stay hot as the Falcons will fly high above the Browns. FALCONS 34-20
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
PICK: Jacksonville +3 who may be on a serious landslide, however, this game falls perfectly in the schedule to become their slump-buster. Coming off a bye week, they play a familiar foe that they’ve had recent success against (5-0 ATS in last 5 vs Colts). JAGUARS 24-20