Bully The Bookie: 10/27
Another winning week and peppering my bookie with spitballs. After starting the weekend 5-1, my bookie was likely headed to Mexico. But the NFL games brought the weekend record to 5-3. My bookie got off easy again - but not this week. Four college picks and four NFL picks this week.
YEAR TO DATE BULLY THE BOOKIE RECORD
NCAAF: 12-4 (3-1 last week)
NFL: 6-5-2 (2-2 last week)
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6 Texas Longhorns (6-1, 3-4 ATS) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-3, 3-4 ATS)
Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK, Saturday October 27th, 8PM EST
Line: Texas -3.5, O/U 59.5
The Cowboys are probably looking forward to this matchup as much as they were looking forward to the battle of the Alamo, because the Longhorns are coming in HOT.
A Texas Longhorn game can be described as an English Premiere League soccer game on steroids, perfectly blended with the Calgary Stampede. Primarily for the pre-game theatrics and the alumni they boast.
Matthew McConaughey has been a Longhorn ambassador ever since he graduated from the University of Texas in the early 90’s. Likely because his inner Dave Wooderson knows, as he gets older, they all stay the same age.
Alright alright alright.... Now onto football.
The movie star has a reason the cheer this season. After a lackluster, disappointing 7-6 season last year, the Longhorns are back into the top 10 and they are there to stay. Texas should be 7-0. In week 1, even though they were 10 point favourites, they caught an L to a much weaker Maryland school . But in hindsight, it was almost a good loss for the Longhorns. Get that ugly game out of the way early because since then, they’ve been cruising.
The Longhorns opponent hasn’t been as fortunate. The Cowboys have lost 3 of 4 despite being at least a touchdown favourite in all 4 of those games. A couple of those losses were flat out embarrassing, including a 24 point loss as a 14 point favourite to Texas Tech. They just aren’t the team anyone expected them to be, and with only a few games left, I see them fading into the off-season.
Quick Stats
- Texas 8-1 in last 9 games in Stillwater, OK
- OK St gives up average 394.9 yards on defense at home this season
PICK: TEXAS -3.5 (BUY A POINT IF AVAILABLE, -3)
PREDICTION: LONGHORNS 33 - COWBOYS 24
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16 Texas A&M Aggies (5-2, 6-1 ATS) @ Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-3, 4-3 ATS)
Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS, Saturday October 27th, 7PM EST
Line: Miss St -2.5, O/U 45
Starkville will be treated to a battle in the trenches this Saturday night. College football’s top defense, Mississippi State, looks to shutdown Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies, in what should be a hard-hitting, hand-the-ball-off-up-the-middle type football game. These teams are incredibly similar. Both love to run the football, both love to stop the run, and both teams love sacking the QB.
Earlier this season, I talked about the Aggies front 7 and how they led the SEC through 5 games. Well now, through 7 games, Mississippi State holds the belt.
The Bronko Nagurski trophy is awarded to the best defensive player in college football, and the Bulldogs currently have two players on the radar for that trophy. Sweat and Simmons combined for 17 tackles last week in a losing effort to #5 LSU. Sweat also leads the SEC with 9 sacks on the campaign.
However, the Bulldogs have horrible offense, and it's almost unbearable to watch when you witness the greatness of their defense. Offensively speaking, they’ve averaged 9.75 points per game and 270 yards per game, which ranked dead last and 2nd last. Defensive and special teams will win this one. It’ll probably come down to a field goal in the 4th quarter to win it - and that winning field goal may make the game 3-0.
Quick Stats
- Both teams are a combined 9-3 on the UNDER this season
- Texas A&M has gone UNDER in 12 of their last 16 road games
- Miss ST has gone UNDER in the last 4 games by average margin of 21.87 points
PICK: UNDER TOTAL POINTS 45
PREDICTION: AGGIES 17 - BULLDOGS 13
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Extra College Plays
University of Nevada at Las Vegas Rebels @ San Jose State Spartans
PICK: SJ State -2.5 as the 0-7 Spartans host UNLV. For the Spartans, it’s the SuperBowl. It’s their best chance for a win this year. I picked Nebraska’s first win last week, so let’s double down with San Jose State's first win this week. 38-28 Spartans.
#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Navy Midshipmen
PICK: Navy +24 as this is just too many points for the 7-0 Fighting Irish on the road. This season Notre Dame has been favourites by over 10 points three times. They have NOT covered the spread in any of those occurrences. 35-17 Fighting Irish
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Cleveland Browns (2-4-1, 5-2 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2-1, 3-3 ATS)
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA, Sunday October 28th, 1PM EST
Line: Steelers -8, O/U 50
After their Week 1 tie in Cleveland, the Browns and Steelers meet for the second time this season. That game included a couple missed game-winning FGs that led to a couple million memes made about the forever-win-less Browns. As we now know, they have won and since then, they’ve continued playing competitive football, hanging with some of the top NFL teams.
Although, it certainly took several attempts at finding a QB.
Financially, smart call to not invest into a new quarterback jersey, especially with this kind of turnover rate.
But I think the search is over, and this fan can confidently purchase himself a new Baker Mayfield jersey, because he is here to stay.
Browns are in for an AFC North rivalry battle, as they go about 3 hours south to Steel City.
The Steelers won back to back games before their bye week last week. There were rumours circulating that a certain Pro Bowl running back was going to make a return on the bye week. Well he didn’t return to Pittsburgh’s practices, and no one on the team even heard from him. This team continues to have more complications than a pregnancy.
Quick Stats
- Browns turnover ratio is +10, 1st in league
- Browns are 6-2 ATS last 8 games
- Steelers are 1-6 ATS last 7 games after a bye week
PICK: CLEVELAND +8
PREDICTION: STEELERS 24 - BROWNS 21
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New York Jets (3-4, 3-4 ATS) @ Chicago Bears (3-3, 3-3 ATS)
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL, Sunday October 28th, 1PM EST
Line: Bears -7.5, O/U 45
Sam Darnold and Jets are having a roller coaster of a season, filled with many peaks and valleys. They're coming off three straight home games, including a win by 20 and a lost by 20. In true rookie fashion, Darnold has displayed inconsistency. He has had flashes of brilliance, such as 3 TD's against the Broncos, with shades of atrocity like last weeks game in Minnesota, where he threw 3 interceptions.
Throughout the season, there have been 3 times where Darnold and his Jets have faced a defense who was top 10 in turnovers. The results; 3 turnovers to Cleveland, 3 turnovers to Miami and 4 turnovers to Minnesota.
The Bears got torched last week at home by the Patriots, AKA they are ready to lean on a much lesser opponent. Especially against a turnover prone rookie QB.
PICK: CHICAGO -7.5
PREDICTION: BEARS 34 - JETS 17
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Extra NFL Plays
Denver Broncos @ Kansas Chiefs
PICK: Chiefs -10 as the Chiefs get another chance at the Broncos. KC had a huge 4th quarter comeback in Denver earlier this month. Kansas City is 6-0 straight up and ATS last 6 vs Denver. 37-17 Chiefs
Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders
PICK: Colts -3 as they travel to Oakland where even the Raider fans may be okay with the possible relocation to Las Vegas. After the Amari Cooper trade, it’s a clear - the raiders are in the midst of a rebuild. 30-17 Colts.